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Changing flood risk: Longer-term flood patterns and generating characteristics in Scotland 1200 to present

McEwen, L.

Authors

Lindsey McEwen Lindsey.Mcewen@uwe.ac.uk
Professor in Environmental Management



Abstract

New maximum recorded river flows on half of Scotland’s largest river systems since 1989 have triggered widespread research and policy interest as to whether extreme floods are becoming more frequent, and in the conditions that generate floods and ‘flood rich’ periods of different
magnitudes and frequencies. Instrumental flow records in Scotland are generally short (1930-), and hence present challenges when placing present flood patterns in a longer-term context. This paper evaluates the magnitude, frequency and seasonality of flooding in Scotland over the past 800
years, through the construction of an ‘All Scotland’ historic flood chronology, using a wide variety of archival sources. Flood patterns are broken down by severity, spatial scale, hydrometric regions affected, seasonality and by generating conditions. Flood events and their antecedent period (1861 to present) were categorised by Lamb-Jenkinson circulation indices. The paper presents initial analysis of the character of historic floods in Scotland (1200 to present), and explores the extent to which there are potential analogues for present flood patterns during the warming period in the latter stages of the Little Ice Age.

Citation

McEwen, L. (2010, July). Changing flood risk: Longer-term flood patterns and generating characteristics in Scotland 1200 to present. Paper presented at BHS Third International Conference, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

Presentation Conference Type Conference Paper (unpublished)
Conference Name BHS Third International Conference
Conference Location Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Start Date Jul 1, 2010
End Date Jul 1, 2010
Publication Date Jul 1, 2010
Peer Reviewed Not Peer Reviewed
Keywords floods, Scotland
Public URL https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/977675
Publisher URL http://www.hydrology.org.uk/assets/2010%20papers/017McEwen.pdf
Additional Information Title of Conference or Conference Proceedings : British Hydrological Society Third International Conference