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Fuzzy System Dynamics Risk Analysis (FuSDRA) of autonomous underwater vehicle operations in the Antarctic

Loh, Tzu Yang; Brito, Mario P.; Bose, Neil; Xu, Jingjing; Tenekedjiev, Kiril


Tzu Yang Loh

Mario P. Brito

Neil Bose

Jingjing Xu

Kiril Tenekedjiev


© 2019 Society for Risk Analysis With the maturing of autonomous technology and better accessibility, there has been a growing interest in the use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). The deployment of AUVs for under-ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extreme operating environment. To control the risk of loss, existing risk analyses approaches tend to focus more on the AUV's technical aspects and neglect the role of soft factors, such as organizational and human influences. In addition, the dynamic and complex interrelationships of risk variables are also often overlooked due to uncertainties and challenges in quantification. To overcome these shortfalls, a hybrid fuzzy system dynamics risk analysis (FuSDRA) is proposed. In the FuSDRA framework, system dynamics models the interrelationships between risk variables from different dimensions and considers the time-dependent nature of risk while fuzzy logic accounts for uncertainties. To demonstrate its application, an example based on an actual Antarctic AUV program is presented. Focusing on funding and experience of the AUV team, simulation of the FuSDRA risk model shows a declining risk of loss from 0.293 in the early years of the Antarctic AUV program, reaching a minimum of 0.206 before increasing again in later years. Risk control policy recommendations were then derived from the analysis. The example demonstrated how FuSDRA can be applied to inform funding and risk management strategies, or broader application both within the AUV domain and on other complex technological systems.


Loh, T. Y., Brito, M. P., Bose, N., Xu, J., & Tenekedjiev, K. (2020). Fuzzy System Dynamics Risk Analysis (FuSDRA) of autonomous underwater vehicle operations in the Antarctic. Risk Analysis, 40(4), 818-841.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Nov 11, 2019
Online Publication Date Dec 4, 2019
Publication Date Apr 1, 2020
Deposit Date Mar 7, 2020
Journal Risk Analysis
Print ISSN 0272-4332
Electronic ISSN 1539-6924
Publisher Wiley
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 40
Issue 4
Pages 818-841
Keywords Physiology (medical); Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
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