The connectedness between crude oil and financial markets: Evidence from implied volatility indices

Awartani, Basel; Maghyereh, Aktam; Guermat, Cherif

Abstract

In this paper we exploit newly introduced implied volatility indexes to investigate the directional risk transfer from oil to US equities, Euro/Dollar exchange rates, precious metals and agricultural commodities. We find significant volatility transmission from oil to equities but little transmission to agricultural commodities. The total pairwise directional connectedness to equities is around 20.4%, while it is only 1.6%, 1.0% and 2.0% to wheat, corn, and soybeans respectively. The risk spillover from oil to precious metals and Euro/Dollar foreign exchange rates is moderate. For instance, the oil market uncertainty spills 11.0%, 11.1% and 8.9% to gold, silver and Euro/Dollar exchange rate respectively. The volatility crossover from all of these markets to oil is tiny, implying that oil is the main driver of its association with these markets. Finally, we provide evidence that the transmission from oil to other markets has increased since the collapse of oil prices in July 2014.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Sep 30, 2016
• Online Publication Date: Nov 9, 2016
• Publication Date: Dec 1, 2016
• Deposit Date: Nov 8, 2016
• Publicly Available Date: Nov 9, 2018
• Journal: Journal of Commodity Markets
• Print ISSN: 2405-8513
• Electronic ISSN: 2405-8513
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 4
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 56-69
• Keywords: oil price volatility, equity volatility, directional connectedness, implied volatility
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/905318
• Publisher URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/24058513
• Contract Date: Nov 8, 2016