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A Bayesian network model to explore practice change by smallholder rice farmers in Lao PDR

Moglia, Magnus; Alexander, Kim S.; Thephavan, Manithaythip; Thammavong, Phomma; Sodahak, Viengkham; Khounsy, Bountom; Vorlasan, Sysavanh; Larson, Silva; Connell, John; Case, Peter


Magnus Moglia

Kim S. Alexander

Manithaythip Thephavan

Phomma Thammavong

Viengkham Sodahak

Bountom Khounsy

Sysavanh Vorlasan

Silva Larson

John Connell


© 2018 A Bayesian Network model has been developed that synthesizes findings from concurrent multi-disciplinary research activities. The model describes the many factors that impact on the chances of a smallholder farmer adopting a proposed change to farming practices. The model, when applied to four different proposed technologies, generated insights into the factors that have the greatest influence on adoption rates. Behavioural motivations for change are highly dependent on farmers' individual viewpoints and are also technology dependent. The model provides a boundary object that provides an opportunity to engage experts and other stakeholders in discussions about their assessment of the technology adoption process, and the opportunities, barriers and constraints faced by smallholder farmers when considering whether to adopt a technology.


Moglia, M., Alexander, K. S., Thephavan, M., Thammavong, P., Sodahak, V., Khounsy, B., …Case, P. (2018). A Bayesian network model to explore practice change by smallholder rice farmers in Lao PDR. Agricultural Systems, 164, 84-94.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Apr 11, 2018
Online Publication Date Apr 18, 2018
Publication Date Jul 1, 2018
Publicly Available Date Oct 19, 2019
Journal Agricultural Systems
Print ISSN 0308-521X
Publisher Elsevier Masson
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 164
Pages 84-94
Keywords innovation diffusion, Bayesian Networks, small-holder farmers, rice agriculture, Laos, Lao PDR
Public URL
Publisher URL
Additional Information Additional Information : This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published version is available here:


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