Using scenarios to address uncertainty in planning for sustainable mobility in small and medium-sized Norwegian cities

Baera, Eivind Jamholt; Alfheim, Linda; Lyons, Glenn; Rohr, Charlene

Abstract

It seems hard now to ignore uncertainty over what the future holds. Such uncertainty poses significant challenges for assessing and appraising policy and investment decisions. Correspondingly scenario planning has become the subject of increasing interest internationally as a means to explore uncertainty and in turn support more robust decision making. In this paper we bring together scenario planning alongside more traditional national planning to support more robust planning for sustainable mobility for small and medium-sized Norwegian cities. The paper describes the mapping of key uncertainties influencing mobility, the development of four explorative plausible future scenarios—and in turn how these scenarios can be used as part of transport analysis and appraisal to inform more robust decision making. The purpose of the paper is twofold. First, it provides case study insight into scenario development and planning. Second, it takes the reader on a ‘learning by doing’ journey through the process of what was done and why, with a sharing of the lessons learned by the study team in the interest of helping others who wish to embark on their own journeys into this important developmental area of transport planning.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jan 24, 2025
• Online Publication Date: Mar 28, 2025
• Publication Date: Mar 28, 2025
• Deposit Date: Mar 29, 2025
• Publicly Available Date: Apr 1, 2025
• Journal: European Transport Research Review
• Print ISSN: 1867-0717
• Electronic ISSN: 1866-8887
• Publisher: SpringerOpen
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 17
• Issue: 1
• Article Number: 18
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-025-00710-3
• Keywords: Uncertainty, Scenarios, Sustainable mobility, Transport planning, Decision making, Scenario planning
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/14152109