RIBA Horizons 2034 The Environmental Challenge: Mitigating carbon emissions- global challenge and regional priorities
Windapo, Abimbola; Moncaster, Alice
Authors
Abimbola Windapo
Alice Moncaster Alice.Moncaster@uwe.ac.uk
Professor in Digital and Sustainable Construction
Abstract
Now more than ever, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) Sixth Assessment Report clarifies the urgency of mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to reduce our impact on the global climate and avoid the worst predictions.
The decade from 2011 to 2020 was the warmest on record – 1.1°C above pre-industrial figures – and there are indications that the current decadal average is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C limit defined in the Paris Agreement. [2, 3]
This ‘decadal average’ approach also gives a useful timeline for understanding the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions. All greenhouse gases – and carbon dioxide in particular – last in the atmosphere for many decades.
The cumulative effect of their build-up has long term consequences for our climate and planetary systems, including unprecedented biodiversity loss and sea level rise from melting ice caps. Also, the cumulative effect of repeated periods of extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall creates localised disasters.
The world is already seeing a growing incidence of heatwaves and wildfires, devastating floods and crop losses. As the IPCC says, this means that there is “a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all”.
The next decade is critical for the radical reduction of emissions to limit these impacts. Over 140 countries have already signed up to net-zero targets. However, the UN reports that current commitments “fall far short of what is required”. The most recent UN Emissions Gap Report suggests that at the current rate of progress, we will be emitting 9% more greenhouse gases by 2030 than we are today, rather than 45% less, which is the figure that is necessary to meet our targets. [4]
Across all industrial sectors, there is now a critical need to reduce energy consumption, phase out fossil fuels, use more sustainable materials and decarbonise energy supply, manufacturing and transportation.
