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Rolling horizon heuristics for production planning and set-up scheduling with backlogs and error-prone demand forecasts

Clark, Alistair

Authors

Alistair Clark



Abstract

Three families of models and fast heuristic methods are developed for identifying a production plan and immediate set-up schedule for a manufacturing line with changeover times. The initial model is exact, but is optimally solvable only for very short planning horizons. A second modelling and solution method optimizes production one period at a time, first in a backward pass to identify target inventory levels, and then in a forward pass to build up these target inventories. Finally, a third method plans set-ups and lots on a period-by-period basis, estimating the capacity usage of future set-ups. All three methods are first tested under static conditions and then on a rolling horizon basis with differing degrees of demand forecast accuracy, tightness of capacity and length of horizon. Computational experiments confirm that even under great forecasting uncertainty the planning horizon should extend beyond the time at which the horizon is rolled forward and the forecasts updated. Tests also show that the degree of capacity tightness and horizon length affects which approximate models and methods are most successful. The degree of forecast error appears to have limited impact on the planning horizon to be used and relative performance of the models. © 2004 Taylor & Francis Ltd.

Citation

Clark, A. (2005). Rolling horizon heuristics for production planning and set-up scheduling with backlogs and error-prone demand forecasts. Production Planning and Control, 16(1), 81-97. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537280412331286565

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Jan 1, 2005
Journal Production Planning and Control
Print ISSN 0953-7287
Electronic ISSN 1366-5871
Publisher Taylor & Francis
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 16
Issue 1
Pages 81-97
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/09537280412331286565
Keywords production planning, set-ups, demand forecasts, rolling horizons, heuristics
Public URL https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/1052596
Publisher URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09537280412331286565