Reacting to the Lucas critique: The Keynesians’ replies

Goutsmedt, Aur�lien; Pinz�n-Fuchs, Erich; Renault, Matthieu; Sergi, Francesco

Abstract

In 1976, Robert Lucas explicitly criticized Keynesian macroeconometric models for their inability to correctly predict the effects of alternative economic policies. Today, most contemporary macroeconomists and some historians of economics consider that Lucas’s critique led forcefully to an
immediate disqualification of the Keynesian macroeconometric approach. This narrative is based on the interpretation of the Lucas critique as a fundamental principle for economic reasoning that was (and still is) logically unquestionable. We consider that this narrative is problematic both in terms of historiography and the effects that it can have in the field as a way of assigning importance and credit to particular macroeconomists. Indeed, the point of view of the Keynesian economists is missing despite the fact that they were the target of Lucas’s paper and that throughout the 1970s and 1980s they produced a fierce reaction against it. In this article we analyze the reactions by a broad set of authors (which we label “Keynesians”) that disputed the relevance of the critique. In spite of their diversity in methodological, theoretical, and policy issues, these reactions were characterized by their common questioning of the empirical and practical relevance of the Lucas critique.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Nov 6, 2018
• Online Publication Date: Jun 1, 2019
• Publication Date: Jun 1, 2019
• Deposit Date: Feb 27, 2019
• Publicly Available Date: Feb 28, 2019
• Journal: History of Political Economy
• Print ISSN: 0018-2702
• Electronic ISSN: 1527-1919
• Publisher: Duke University Press
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 51
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 535-556
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-7551912
• Keywords: history of macroeconomics, Lucas Critique, Keynesian macroeconomics, stagflation
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/857280
• Publisher URL: https://read.dukeupress.edu/hope
• Additional Information: Additional Information : This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published version is available here: https://read.dukeupress.edu/hope
• Contract Date: Feb 27, 2019