Dynamic Security Risk Evaluation via Hybrid Bayesian Risk Graph in Cyber-Physical Social Systems

Li, Shancang; Zhao, Shanshan; Yuan, Yong; Sun, Qindong; Zhang, Kewang

Abstract

© 2014 IEEE. Cyber-physical social system (CPSS) plays an important role in both the modern lifestyle and business models, which significantly changes the way we interact with the physical world. The increasing influence of cyber systems and social networks is also a high risk for security threats. The objective of this paper is to investigate associated risks in CPSS, and a hybrid Bayesian risk graph (HBRG) model is proposed to analyze the temporal attack activity patterns in dynamic cyber-physical social networks. In the proposed approach, a hidden Markov model is introduced to model the dynamic influence of activities, which then be mapped into a Bayesian risks graph (BRG) model that can evaluate the risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. Our numerical studies demonstrate that the framework can model and evaluate risks of user activity patterns that expose to CPSSs.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jul 7, 2018
• Online Publication Date: Aug 14, 2018
• Publication Date: Dec 1, 2018
• Deposit Date: Sep 3, 2018
• Publicly Available Date: Oct 3, 2018
• Journal: IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems
• Electronic ISSN: 2329-924X
• Publisher: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 5
• Issue: 4
• Pages: 1133-1141
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/TCSS.2018.2858440
• Keywords: activity profile modelling, risk analysis, Hidden Markov Model, Bayesian risk graph, cyber-physical social system
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/855347
• Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TCSS.2018.2858440
• Additional Information: Additional Information : (c) 2018 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other users, including reprinting/ republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted components of this work in other works.
• Contract Date: Sep 3, 2018