A stochastic assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation and potential evaporation in Alberta

Vashchyshyn, I; Wheater, HS; Chun, K

Abstract

In many climate change investigations, changes in precipitation are projected under various scenarios; however, changes in evaporation have received relatively less attention. For irrigation and water resources management, the difference between potential evaporation and precipitation can provide better quantification of local water availability and drought conditions. Therefore, projecting joint variations in precipitation and potential evaporation can provide better information for climate change adaptation. A stochastic approach based on a Generalised Linear Model (GLM) framework is proposed to study these together at a station scale. Eight stations in Alberta are selected for which historical pan evaporation records and up-to-date meteorological information are available. Results show that potential evaporation estimated from Global Circulation Models directly can be unreliable. The evaporation ensemble simulated by the GLM approach can represent observed evaporation more realistically and provide better uncertainty quantification. If only simulated precipitation is considered, the projected drought conditions in the 2080s are likely to be less severe than that in the 2000s. However, the projected difference between precipitation and evaporation (water deficit) shows that the future drought conditions may be higher or lower, varying between the stations. Implications of the results and further development of the proposed approach to address spatial dependence between stations are also discussed.

• Presentation Conference Type: Poster
• Conference Name: AGU Fall Meeting
• Start Date: Dec 3, 2012
• End Date: Dec 7, 2012
• Deposit Date: Feb 25, 2022
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/8545711
• Publisher URL: https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.H24B..04V/abstract