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Spatio-temporal variability in North Atlantic oscillation monthly rainfall signatures in Great Britain

West, Harry; Quinn, Nevil; Horswell, Michael

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Authors

Profile image of Harry West

Dr Harry West Harry.West@uwe.ac.uk
Senior Lecturer in Geography & Environmental Management

Michael Horswell Michael.Horswell@uwe.ac.uk
Senior Lecturer in GIS & Spatial Analysis



Abstract

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the primary atmospheric-oceanic circulation/teleconnection influencing regional climate in Great Britain. As our ability to predict the NAO several months in advance increases, it is important that we improve our spatio-temporal understanding of the rainfall signatures that the circulation produces. We undertake a high resolution spatio-temporal analysis quantifying variability in rainfall response to the NAO across Great Britain. We analyse and map monthly NAO-rainfall response variability, revealing the spatial influence of the NAO on rainfall distributions, and particularly the probability of wet and dry conditions/extremes. During the winter months, we identify spatial differences in the rainfall response to the NAO between the NW and SE areas of Britain. The NW area shows a strong and more consistent NAO-rainfall response, with greater probability of more extreme wet/dry conditions. However, greater NAO-rainfall variability during winter was found in the SE. The summer months are marked by a more spatially consistent rainfall response; however, we find that there is variability in both wet/dry magnitude and directionality. We note the implications of these spatially and temporally variable NAO-rainfall responses for regional hydrometeorological predictions and highlight the potential explanatory role of other atmospheric-oceanic circulations.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jun 11, 2021
Online Publication Date Jun 13, 2021
Publication Date Jun 13, 2021
Deposit Date Jun 13, 2021
Publicly Available Date Jun 17, 2021
Journal Atmosphere
Electronic ISSN 2073-4433
Publisher MDPI
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 12
Issue 6
Article Number 763
DOI https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060763
Public URL https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/7467372
Publisher URL https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/6/763

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