Multidisciplinary approach to COVID-19 risk communication: A framework and tool for individual and regional risk assessment

Parajuli, Rishi Ram; Mishra, Bhogendra; Banstola, Amrit; Ghimire, Bhoj Raj; Poudel, Shobha; Sharma, Kusum; Dixit, Sameer Mani; Sah, Sunil Kumar; Simkhada, Padam; van Teijlingen, Edwin

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has exceeded over sixty-five million cases globally. Different approaches are followed to mitigate its impact and reduce its spreading in different countries, but limiting mobility and exposure have been de-facto precautions to reduce transmission. However, a full lockdown cannot be sustained for a prolonged period. An evidence-based, multidisciplinary approach on risk zoning, personal and transmission risk assessment in near real-time, and risk communication would support the optimized decisions to minimize the impact of coronavirus on our lives. This paper presents a framework to assess the individual and regional risk of COVID-19 along with risk communication tools and mechanisms. Relative risk scores on a scale of 100 represent the integrated risk of influential factors. The personal risk model incorporates age, exposure history, symptoms, local risk and existing health condition, whereas regional risk is computed through the actual cases of COVID-19, public health risk factors, socioeconomic condition of the region, and immigration statistics. A web application tool (http://www.covira.info) has been developed, where anyone can assess their risk and find the guided information links primarily for Nepal. This study provides regional risk for Nepal, but the framework is scalable across the world. However, personal risk can be assessed immediately from anywhere.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Nov 30, 2020
• Online Publication Date: Dec 10, 2020
• Publication Date: Dec 10, 2020
• Deposit Date: Dec 10, 2020
• Publicly Available Date: Dec 11, 2020
• Journal: Scientific Reports
• Electronic ISSN: 2045-2322
• Publisher: Nature Research (part of Springer Nature)
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 10
• Article Number: 21650
• Pages: 1-14
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-78779-0
• Keywords: Natural hazards; Risk factors
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/6941913
• Publisher URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-78779-0