Planning for an unpredictable future: Transport in Great Britain in 2030

Chatterjee, Kiron; Gordon, Andrew

Abstract

This paper describes a research study, which explores alternative future scenarios for Great Britain in the year 2030 and the implications these have for travel demand and transport provision. Five alternative future scenarios are represented in the GB national transport model and forecasts are obtained for trip making, traffic levels, congestion and emissions in 2030. For all scenarios it is expected that there will be significant traffic growth. Traffic growth is restricted most in scenarios including distance-based road charging on motorways and trunk roads. However, congestion and carbon dioxide emissions are most effectively limited in scenarios with congestion-based road charging, major improvements to urban public transport and investment in new fuel technologies and in improving engine efficiency. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Publication Date: May 1, 2006
• Journal: Transport Policy
• Print ISSN: 0967-070X
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 13
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 254-264
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2005.11.003
• Keywords: scenario planning, forecasting, travel demand, traffic growth
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/1039275
• Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2005.11.003
• Additional Information: Additional Information : Lead author. Summative findings of DfT project for which Chatterjee was proposal lead author and project manager. Project findings used by DfT to examine the robustness of the Transport Ten Year Plan. Developments to National Transport Model undertaken for this project have been incorporated into subsequent work by DfT.