A statistical development of fixed odds betting rules in soccer

Milliner, Ian; White, Paul; Webber, Don J.

Abstract

Two simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed. One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite. The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model. Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Publication Date: Jan 1, 2009
• Deposit Date: Nov 3, 2011
• Publicly Available Date: Feb 24, 2016
• Journal: Journal of Gambling, Business and Economics
• Print ISSN: 1751-8008
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 3
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 89-99
• Keywords: fixed odds betting rules, away win, bookmakers’ probabilities
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/1004459
• Publisher URL: http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/ubpl/jgbe/2009/00000003/00000001/art00005
• Contract Date: Feb 24, 2016