Exploring a city's potential low carbon futures using Delphi methods: Some preliminary findings

Longhurst, James; Bailey, Rosemary; Hayes, Enda T; Hudson, Lorraine; Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala; Thumim, Joshua

Abstract

This paper describes a Delphi methodology to generate a number of broadly consensual low carbon scenarios for 2050. This approach to 'creating' the future, rather than predicting, is useful when dealing with profound and uncertain change over a long period of time and is therefore suited to carbon management. The methodology is described, and the first stage of the consultation process is discussed with reference to its application in the UK city region of Bristol. Findings from the first round have resulted in the identification of seven working scenarios and patterns in the responses of individuals from different backgrounds, suggesting that strong world-views and agendas are present within groups. Subsequent rounds of a questionnaire and a backcasting workshop will refine these working scenarios and identify pathways to achieve them. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Publication Date: Oct 1, 2012
• Journal: Journal of Environmental Planning and Management
• Print ISSN: 0964-0568
• Electronic ISSN: 1360-0559
• Publisher: Taylor & Francis (Routledge)
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 55
• Issue: 8
• Pages: 1022-1046
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2011.635192
• Keywords: carbon management, cities, scenarios, Delphi technique, low carbon futures
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/949741
• Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2011.635192
• Related Public URLs: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09640568.2011.635192