Kuznets’ swings and intangible investments in forecast: the case of Greece

Angelis, Vassilis; Tubadji, Annie; Nijkamp, Peter; Angelis, Vasilis

Abstract

© 2015 Taylor & Francis. This article offers an analysis of the relationship between intangible investments and the pattern of local economic productivity in Greece. There are two main objectives in the article: (i) to explore the pattern of economic development in the country; (ii) to find evidence whether this pattern – and its trend – can be better predicted through a forecasting model including intangible investments (next to other relevant factors). To operationalize our study, we use the World Bank Development Indicators database which offers a time-series for Greece for the period from 1981 till date. This data set has two alternative relevant measures for intangible investments: knowledge- and health-related investments. In our analysis we employ first, a centred moving average with a stochastic estimation of the trend, and second a double exponential smoothing, as two alternative (‘deductive’ and next ‘inductive’) approaches to identifying a trend in our data for Greece. We find evidence for a Kuznets swing type of cyclical pattern for Greece – confirmed by triangulation. Most significantly, we also find a relationship between local economic development and intangible investments. These results prompt an evidence-based query about underlying Myrdalian and Tieboutian foundations of wave theory for understanding local economic crises.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jul 31, 2015
• Online Publication Date: Jul 31, 2015
• Publication Date: Jan 1, 2016
• Journal: Applied Economics Letters
• Print ISSN: 1350-4851
• Electronic ISSN: 1466-4291
• Publisher: Taylor & Francis (Routledge)
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 23
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 56-62
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2015.1049332
• Keywords: culture, intangible investments, local productivity, forecast, Greece
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/905296
• Publisher URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2015.1049332