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Kuznets’ swings and intangible investments in forecast: the case of Greece

Angelis, Vassilis; Tubadji, Annie; Nijkamp, Peter; Angelis, Vasilis


Vassilis Angelis

Annie Tubadji

Peter Nijkamp

Vasilis Angelis


© 2015 Taylor & Francis. This article offers an analysis of the relationship between intangible investments and the pattern of local economic productivity in Greece. There are two main objectives in the article: (i) to explore the pattern of economic development in the country; (ii) to find evidence whether this pattern – and its trend – can be better predicted through a forecasting model including intangible investments (next to other relevant factors). To operationalize our study, we use the World Bank Development Indicators database which offers a time-series for Greece for the period from 1981 till date. This data set has two alternative relevant measures for intangible investments: knowledge- and health-related investments. In our analysis we employ first, a centred moving average with a stochastic estimation of the trend, and second a double exponential smoothing, as two alternative (‘deductive’ and next ‘inductive’) approaches to identifying a trend in our data for Greece. We find evidence for a Kuznets swing type of cyclical pattern for Greece – confirmed by triangulation. Most significantly, we also find a relationship between local economic development and intangible investments. These results prompt an evidence-based query about underlying Myrdalian and Tieboutian foundations of wave theory for understanding local economic crises.


Angelis, V., Tubadji, A., Nijkamp, P., & Angelis, V. (2016). Kuznets’ swings and intangible investments in forecast: the case of Greece. Applied Economics Letters, 23(1), 56-62.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jul 31, 2015
Online Publication Date Jul 31, 2015
Publication Date Jan 1, 2016
Journal Applied Economics Letters
Print ISSN 1350-4851
Electronic ISSN 1466-4291
Publisher Taylor & Francis (Routledge)
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 23
Issue 1
Pages 56-62
Keywords culture, intangible investments, local productivity, forecast, Greece
Public URL
Publisher URL