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Reacting to the Lucas critique: The Keynesians’ replies

Goutsmedt, Aurélien; Pinzón-Fuchs, Erich; Renault, Matthieu; Sergi, Francesco

Authors

Aurélien Goutsmedt

Erich Pinzón-Fuchs

Matthieu Renault



Abstract

In 1976, Robert Lucas explicitly criticized Keynesian macroeconometric models for their inability to correctly predict the effects of alternative economic policies. Today, most contemporary macroeconomists and some historians of economics consider that Lucas’s critique led forcefully to an
immediate disqualification of the Keynesian macroeconometric approach. This narrative is based on the interpretation of the Lucas critique as a fundamental principle for economic reasoning that was (and still is) logically unquestionable. We consider that this narrative is problematic both in terms of historiography and the effects that it can have in the field as a way of assigning importance and credit to particular macroeconomists. Indeed, the point of view of the Keynesian economists is missing despite the fact that they were the target of Lucas’s paper and that throughout the 1970s and 1980s they produced a fierce reaction against it. In this article we analyze the reactions by a broad set of authors (which we label “Keynesians”) that disputed the relevance of the critique. In spite of their diversity in methodological, theoretical, and policy issues, these reactions were characterized by their common questioning of the empirical and practical relevance of the Lucas critique.

Citation

Goutsmedt, A., Pinzón-Fuchs, E., Renault, M., & Sergi, F. (2019). Reacting to the Lucas critique: The Keynesians’ replies. History of Political Economy, 51(3), 535-556. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-7551912

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Nov 6, 2018
Online Publication Date Jun 1, 2019
Publication Date Jun 1, 2019
Publicly Available Date Nov 30, -0001
Journal History of Political Economy
Print ISSN 0018-2702
Electronic ISSN 1527-1919
Publisher Duke University Press
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 51
Issue 3
Pages 535-556
DOI https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-7551912
Keywords history of macroeconomics, Lucas Critique, Keynesian macroeconomics, stagflation
Public URL https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/857280
Publisher URL https://read.dukeupress.edu/hope
Additional Information Additional Information : This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published version is available here: https://read.dukeupress.edu/hope

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