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Regional rainfall response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) across Great Britain

West, Harry; Quinn, Nevil; Horswell, Michael

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Authors

Profile image of Harry West

Dr Harry West Harry.West@uwe.ac.uk
Senior Lecturer in Geography & Environmental Management

Michael Horswell Michael.Horswell@uwe.ac.uk
Senior Lecturer in GIS & Spatial Analysis



Abstract

© IWA Publishing 2019. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been long studied as the primary teleconnection affecting the British and European climate. However, previous studies have focused on extremes or have been spatially and temporally limited. In recent years, our ability to predict the NAO has improved. Also, new research is emerging, suggesting that the NAO is a key driver of hydrological extremes. These factors mean that there is a renewed value in enhancing our understanding of how the NAO influences general rainfall patterns. In this study, we spatially analyse correlations between NAO indices and monthly rainfall data and the Standardised Precipitation Index. We also map mean monthly rainfall differences under NAO-positive and -negative conditions. Based on our results, we identify three main observations: (I) there is sensitivity in the rainfall patterns to the chosen NAO index; (II) there is a clear winter north/west and south/east divide in rainfall patterns; and (III) the NAO does have an effect on summer rainfall patterns, although the spatiality of these patterns is less distinctive than in winter. As far as we are aware, this is the first national scale, monthly NAO-rainfall analysis undertaken for a long period.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 9, 2019
Online Publication Date May 25, 2019
Publication Date Dec 1, 2019
Deposit Date May 9, 2019
Publicly Available Date May 26, 2020
Journal Hydrology Research
Print ISSN 0029-1277
Publisher IWA Publishing
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 50
Issue 6
Pages 1549-1563
DOI https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.015
Keywords British climate, North Atlantic Oscillation, rainfall patterns, teleconnections, wet/dry continuum
Public URL https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/846658
Publisher URL https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.015
Contract Date May 29, 2019

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