Education and the geography of Brexit

Calvert Jump, Robert; Michell, Jo

Abstract

While it is well established that educational attainment is highly correlated with Brexit voting patterns, the predictive capacity of education has attracted less attention. Using full-sample and split-sample exercises, this paper demonstrates that educational attainment alone can correctly classify over 90% of local authorities by voting outcome in the 2016 referendum to leave the EU, depending on the prediction model and classification method used. This illustrates the importance of education as a key factor in the geography of Brexit.

• Journal Article Type: Note
• Acceptance Date: Oct 8, 2020
• Online Publication Date: Dec 10, 2020
• Publication Date: 2023-02
• Deposit Date: Feb 1, 2021
• Publicly Available Date: Aug 1, 2022
• Journal: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
• Print ISSN: 1745-7289
• Electronic ISSN: 1745-7297
• Publisher: Taylor & Francis (Routledge)
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 33
• Issue: 1
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2020.1839471
• Keywords: Sociology and Political Science
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/7045836
• Publisher URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17457289.2020.1839471
• Additional Information: Peer Review Statement: The publishing and review policy for this title is described in its Aims & Scope.; Aim & Scope: http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?show=aimsScope&journalCode=fbep20; Received: 2019-10-30; Accepted: 2020-10-08; Published: 2020-12-10