To what extent, comparatively, might changes in international law constrain the use of the military instrument of power by Russia, China, and UK in the 2020s and 2030s?

Green, James A.

Abstract

This report was commissioned and funded by the Secretary of State’s Office for Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC), Ministry of Defence, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

As was requested by SONAC, it seeks to predict possible changes in international law over the period until 2040 relating to the exercise of military power, and then considers the potential constraining effect that any such changes may have on three states: China, Russia, and the UK. It argues that, in an increasingly multipolar global context, most legal ‘change’ will involve shifts in the interpretation of, and in the engagement with, legal rules, rather than the creation of new treaties. However, there will be clarification and development of legal rules in some key areas related to military power, such as artificial intelligence, outer space, cyberspace, private military security companies, and regional militarism. International law in these, and other, areas will influence the behaviour of each of China, Russia, and the UK in relation to their exercise of military power in the period to 2024, but to a limited extent, and in differing ways.

• Report Type: Consultancy Report
• Publication Date: Apr 1, 2024
• Deposit Date: Apr 8, 2024
• Publicly Available Date: Apr 9, 2024
• Keywords: international law; military power; change; future; constraint
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/11884001