Heterogeneous epidemic modelling within an enclosed space and corresponding Bayesian estimation

Wen, Conghua; Wei, Junwei; Ma, Zheng Feei; He, Mu; Zhao, Shi; Ji, Jiayu; He, Daihai

Abstract

Since March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 has been a global pandemic for more than one years due to a long and infectious incubation period. This paper establishes a heterogeneous epidemic model that divides the incubation period into infectious and non-infectious and employs the Bayesian framework to model the ‘Diamond Princess’ enclosed space incident. The heterogeneity includes two different identities, two transmission methods, two different-size rooms, and six transmission stages. This model is also applicable to similar mixed structures, including closed schools, hospitals, and communities. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, our mathematical modeling can provide management insights to the governments and policymakers on how the COVID-19 disease has spread and what prevention strategies still need to be taken.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Feb 9, 2022
• Online Publication Date: Mar 10, 2022
• Publication Date: Jun 1, 2022
• Deposit Date: Dec 8, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Dec 8, 2022
• Journal: Infectious Disease Modelling
• Print ISSN: 2468-0427
• Electronic ISSN: 2468-0427
• Publisher: KeAi Communications
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 7
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 1-24
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.02.001
• Keywords: Applied Mathematics; Infectious Diseases; Health Policy; COVID-19; Epidemic model; Incubation period; Transmission; COVID-19 Pandemic
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/10226863
• Publisher URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042722000057?via%3Dihub
• Additional Information: This article is maintained by: Elsevier; Article Title: Heterogeneous epidemic modelling within an enclosed space and corresponding Bayesian estimation; Journal Title: Infectious Disease Modelling; CrossRef DOI link to publisher maintained version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.02.001; Content Type: article; Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.