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Scenarios and counterfactuals as modal narratives

Booth, Charles; Rowlinson, Michael; Clark, Peter; Delahaye, Agnes; Procter, Stephen

Authors

Charles Booth Charles.Booth@uwe.ac.uk
Associate Professor in Strategy and Organisation

Michael Rowlinson

Peter Clark

Agnes Delahaye

Stephen Procter



Abstract

Scenarios and counterfactuals are two types of modal narrative. Modal narratives concern themselves with contingency and determinism: with questions of possibility and necessity. While scenarios are future-oriented, focused on what might yet be, counterfactuals are narratives of what might have been. Despite this fundamental temporal difference, consideration of the theoretical and philosophical underpinnings of modal narratives as a genre enables us to elucidate some critical issues concerning scenarios as a foresight methodology. In particular, the scenario literature has tended to avoid extended discussion of its implicit assumptions concerning causation, necessity, possibility and contingency. By confronting the modal nature of foresight methodologies more explicitly, the futures community may begin to lay more secure philosophical foundations for their deployment. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Citation

Booth, C., Rowlinson, M., Clark, P., Delahaye, A., & Procter, S. (2009). Scenarios and counterfactuals as modal narratives. Futures, 41(2), 87-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2008.07.037

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Mar 1, 2009
Journal Futures
Print ISSN 0016-3287
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 41
Issue 2
Pages 87-95
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2008.07.037
Keywords conterfactuals, scenarios, modal narratives
Public URL https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/1000955
Publisher URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2008.07.037