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A cumulative prospect theory approach to passengers behavior modeling: Waiting time paradox revisited

Avineri, Erel

Authors

Erel Avineri



Abstract

Common travel-choice models are based on the assumption that travelers ' behavior is rational. However, using normative models to describe individual choice was criticized by behavioral scientists, and recently also by transportation researchers. In this paper, aspects of passengers ' bounded-rationality behavior are studied. Specifically, we focus on the decision-making process of the individual passenger who has to select a bus line. The effect of information format on individual choice is studied by the examination of subjects' preferences of bus lines. Questionnaires presented two different formats of alternative bus lines information, buses' headway intervals, and by waiting time. The results show evidence to size-biased sampling (known as the waiting time paradox) when subjects are provided with information about buses' headway intervals. By formulation and interpretation of subjects' preferences with the framework of Cumulative Prospect Theory, the value of passengers' reference point may be derived. It was found that such a reference point is much lower than the experienced waiting times reported by subjects. This better understanding of passengers' behavior may improve the design of public transportation timetables and advanced travelers information systems (ATIS).

Citation

Avineri, E. (2004). A cumulative prospect theory approach to passengers behavior modeling: Waiting time paradox revisited. Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems: Technology, Planning, and Operations, 8(4), 195-204. https://doi.org/10.1080/15472450490523856

Journal Article Type Conference Paper
Publication Date Oct 1, 2004
Journal Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems: Technology, Planning, and Operations
Print ISSN 1547-2450
Electronic ISSN 1547-2442
Publisher Taylor & Francis
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 8
Issue 4
Pages 195-204
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/15472450490523856
Keywords waiting time paradox, cumulative prospect theory, ATIS
Public URL https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/1062961
Publisher URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15472450490523856


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