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From product recommendation to cyber-attack prediction: generating attack graphs and predicting future attacks

Polatidis, Nikolaos; Pimenidis, Elias; Pavlidis, Michalis; Papastergiou, Spyridon; Mouratidis, Haralambos

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Authors

Nikolaos Polatidis

Michalis Pavlidis

Spyridon Papastergiou

Haralambos Mouratidis



Abstract

Modern information society depends on reliable functionality of information systems infrastructure, while at the same time the number of cyber-attacks has been increasing over the years and damages have been caused. Furthermore, graphs can be used to show paths than can be exploited by attackers to intrude into systems and gain unauthorized access through vulnerability exploitation. This paper presents a method that builds attack graphs using data supplied from the maritime supply chain infrastructure. The method delivers all possible paths that can be exploited to gain access. Then, a recommendation system is utilized to make predictions about future attack steps within the network. We show that recommender systems can be used in cyber defense by predicting attacks. The goal of this paper is to identify attack paths and show how a recommendation method can be used to classify future cyber-attacks in terms of risk management. The proposed method has been experimentally evaluated and validated, with the results showing that it is both practical and effective.

Citation

Polatidis, N., Pimenidis, E., Pavlidis, M., Papastergiou, S., & Mouratidis, H. (2020). From product recommendation to cyber-attack prediction: generating attack graphs and predicting future attacks. Evolving Systems, 11(2), 479-490. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12530-018-9234-z

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 13, 2018
Online Publication Date May 22, 2018
Publication Date Jun 30, 2020
Deposit Date May 16, 2018
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Journal Evolving Systems
Print ISSN 1868-6478
Electronic ISSN 1868-6486
Publisher Springer Verlag
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 11
Issue 2
Pages 479-490
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s12530-018-9234-z
Keywords recommender systems, cyber security, attack graph generation, attack prediction, risk management
Public URL https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/875579
Publisher URL https://doi.org/10.1007/s12530-018-9234-z
Additional Information Additional Information : The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1007/s12530-018-9234-z

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