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Connectivity disruption sparks explosive epidemic spreading

Böttcher, L.; Woolley-Meza, O.; Goles, E.; Helbing, D.; Herrmann, H. J.

Authors

L. Böttcher

O. Woolley-Meza

E. Goles

D. Helbing

H. J. Herrmann



Abstract

We investigate the spread of an infection or other malfunction of cascading nature when a system component can recover only if it remains reachable from a functioning central component. We consider the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, typical of mathematical epidemiology, on a network. Infection spreads from infected to healthy nodes, with the addition that infected nodes can only recover when they remain connected to a predefined central node, through a path that contains only healthy nodes. In this system, clusters of infected nodes will absorb their noninfected interior because no path exists between the central node and encapsulated nodes. This gives rise to the simultaneous infection of multiple nodes. Interestingly, the system converges to only one of two stationary states: either the whole population is healthy or it becomes completely infected. This simultaneous cluster infection can give rise to discontinuous jumps of different sizes in the number of failed nodes. Larger jumps emerge at lower infection rates. The network topology has an important effect on the nature of the transition: we observed hysteresis for networks with dominating local interactions. Our model shows how local spread can abruptly turn uncontrollable when it disrupts connectivity at a larger spatial scale.

Citation

Böttcher, L., Woolley-Meza, O., Goles, E., Helbing, D., & Herrmann, H. J. (2016). Connectivity disruption sparks explosive epidemic spreading. Physical Review E, 93(4), https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.93.042315

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Feb 1, 2016
Online Publication Date Apr 25, 2016
Publication Date Apr 25, 2016
Deposit Date Mar 5, 2020
Journal Physical Review E
Print ISSN 2470-0045
Electronic ISSN 2470-0053
Publisher American Physical Society
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 93
Issue 4
DOI https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.93.042315
Public URL https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/5608450