Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

Monetary policy and exchange rates: A balanced two-country cointegrated var model approach

Heinlein, Reinhold; Krolzig, Hans Martin


Hans Martin Krolzig


We study the exchange rate effects of monetary policy in a balanced macroeconometric two-country model for the United States and United Kingdom. In contrast to the empirical literature, which consistently treats the domestic and foreign countries unequally in the modeling process, we consider full model feedback, allowing for a thorough analysis of the system dynamics. The problem of model dimensionality is tackled by invoking the approach by Aoki (1981). Assuming country symmetry in the long run allows to decouple the two-country macrodynamics of country averages and differences such that the cointegration analysis can be applied to smaller systems. Second, the econometric modeling is general-to-specific, a graph-theoretic approach for the contemporaneous effects combined with automatic general-to-specific model selection. We find delayed overshooting of the exchange rate in the case of a Bank of England monetary shock but instantaneous response to a Fed shock. Altogether the response is more pronounced in the former case.


Heinlein, R., & Krolzig, H. M. (2019). Monetary policy and exchange rates: A balanced two-country cointegrated var model approach. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(5), 1838-1874.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Mar 21, 2017
Online Publication Date Sep 20, 2017
Publication Date Jul 1, 2019
Deposit Date Sep 18, 2019
Publicly Available Date Sep 19, 2019
Journal Macroeconomic Dynamics
Print ISSN 1365-1005
Electronic ISSN 1469-8056
Publisher Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 23
Issue 5
Pages 1838-1874
Public URL


You might also like

Downloadable Citations