Historical and pooled flood frequency analysis for the River Tay at Perth, Scotland

Macdonald, N.; Werritty, A.; Black, A. R.; McEwen, L. J.

Abstract

Improved estimates of UK flood risk during a period of increased climatic variability place challenges on existing methods that rely on short instrumental records. This paper examines the value of using historical data (both documentary and epigraphic) to augment existing gauged records for the River Tay at Perth as part of a multi-method approach to assessing flood risk. Single station and pooled methods are compared with flood risk estimates based on an augmented historical series (1815-2000) using the Generalized Logistic and Generalized Pareto distributions. The value of using an even longer, but less reliable, extended historical series (1210-2000) is also examined. It is recommended that modelling flood risk for return periods >100 years should incorporate historical data, where available, and that a multi-method approach using a high threshold Generalized Pareto distribution can also add confidence in flood risk estimates for return periods

Citation

Macdonald, N., Werritty, A., Black, A. R., & McEwen, L. J. (2006). Historical and pooled flood frequency analysis for the River Tay at Perth, Scotland. Area, 38(1), 34-46. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4762.2006.00673.x

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Publication Date: Mar 1, 2006
• Journal: Area
• Print ISSN: 0004-0894
• Electronic ISSN: 1475-4762
• Publisher: Wiley
• Peer Reviewed: Not Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 38
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 34-46
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4762.2006.00673.x
• Keywords: Perth, flood risk estimates, historical data, pooling method, generalized pareto distribution, River Tay
• Public URL: https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/1040436
• Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4762.2006.00673.x